Data Shows that a Trade War with Canada Would Hurt Trump’s Base The Most

June 13th, 2018

Analysis of voter data and trade flows with Canada reveals that many of the states that supported President Trump in the 2016 election generally have a surplus in goods trade with Canada. States such as Texas, Ohio, Tennessee, and North Dakota, which all supported Trump, enjoy a favorable surplus with Canada, while states which supported Clinton, such as California, Illinois, and Washington, have a sizeable trade deficit with our neighbor to the North.


This is especially relevant in light of the Trump administration’s recent inflammatory trade actions against Mexico and Canada – our NAFTA partners. The analysis, which was conducted by CNBC, shows that if tensions between Trump and Trudeau culminate into an all-out trade war, it is Trump supporters who stand to lose the most. The Trump administration’s tariffs on steel and aluminum are an apt example of just how tariffs hurt a majority while only benefiting a few. See a chart of CNBC’s analysis below: